EXPERTS?

Posted at 7:15 a.m. ET

Harry Truman once said that you can't tell an expert anything.  Then he wouldn't be an expert anymore.

And so it comes to pass that some self-proclaimed "experts" are about to dump on president-elect Obama their wisdom about Iran.  There is no wisdom here.  AP reports:

US President-elect Barack Obama, plotting his strategy on Iran, is getting this advice from a panel of American diplomats and other experts: Don't pile on economic and military threats; it doesn't help.

Suspicious already?  So was I?

"An attack would almost certainly fail" while coercing Iran with economic sanctions has very little chance of success, the experts say in a report to be presented next week at a conference on the future of US-Iran policy.

Why would an attack "almost certainly" fail?  Do these boys understand what 800 planes and a thousand cruise missiles can do?  Should someone give them a slide show?

The Iranian people "have seen the outcome of US-sponsored regime change in Afghanistan and Iraq. They want no part of it," the report said.

I wonder how these "experts" would know that?  Who is their pollster?  John Zogby?  We know that the regime is hated by many, and that most Americans are pro-Western.  That statement doesn't add up.

Far more likely to succeed, said former US ambassadors Thomas Pickering and James F. Dobbins, Columbia University scholar Gary G. Sick and 17 other experts, is to "open the door to direct, unconditional and comprehensive negotiations at the senior diplomatic level."

Oh please.  Oh come on. My friend and real Iran expert Banafsheh Zand-Bonazzi points out that "a senior French government official, recently visiting Washington, urged the new administration to abandon the folly of negotiations with Tehran.  'We've been negotiating with the Iranians since 2003,' said French nuclear advisor Therese Delpech. 'We came to the conclusion that they are not interested at all in negotiating, but in buying time for their military (nuclear) program.'"

And that's a French negotiator speaking.  The French passion for negotiating is as great as their passion for passion.

By the way, Gary Sick was Jimmy Carter chief White House adviser on Iran.  Gives you confidence, doesn't it?

The "expert" analysis continues:

The report originated from conversations among a number of experts on Iran who were concerned about the course of American diplomacy on Iran, Dobbins said Thursday. "We got together to offer the administration a different approach, one that is focused on communication and with a view to making progress over time on a range of issues," he said.

Oh, I see.  Over time.  And over this same time Iran will build, perfect and maybe use a 20-kiloton monster.  But they wouldn't be rude enough to do that while the experts are talking, would they?  Let's not insult those mullahs.

And...

Richard Parker, a professor at the University of Connecticut, organized the report, which will be presented Tuesday to the National Iranian American Council.

One of those groups that wants us to "understand" the mullahs.  Not people you want in your home on Friday night.

On other fronts, the experts advised giving Iran "a place at the table" in shaping the future of Iraq, Afghanistan and the region.

The United States and Iran support the same government in Iraq and face common enemies in the Taliban and al-Qaida in Afghanistan, the report said.

Yeah, and both Hitler and Roosevelt liked dogs.  It's all the same thing. 

Is this a serious proposal we're looking at?  You can just see how the American people will react to our opening the door to Iranian influence.  Does the phrase "one-term president" interest these "experts"?

Labeled "Myth ..1" in the report is the notion that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad calls the shots on Iran's nuclear and foreign policy.

The ultimate decision-maker is the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, commander in chief of Iran's armed forces, the report said. Despite frequent hostile rhetoric aimed at Israel and the West, "Khamenei's track record reveals a cautious decision maker who acts after consulting advisers holding a range of views, including views sharply critical of Ahmadinejad."

If Mr. Supreme Leader didn't like what Ahmadinejad is saying, he could arrange for the esteemed president to suffer a sudden misfortune.  No arrangements have been made.

I get the feeling that this panel of "experts" had its last meeting on that ride in Disneyland where they play "It's a Small World After All."  They were influenced.

Yuch.

November 14, 2008.